The year 2024 will be remembered for many things, Paris hosting the Olympics, PM Modi securing a new term in Lok Sabha elections, and India’s historic victory in the T-20 World Cup. Yet, another defining moment that this year will be remembered by is the two Nobel Prizes awarded in Physics and Chemistry, both recognizing the transformative power of Artificial Intelligence (or AI). The Nobel for Physics was awarded for advancements in neural networks and the other one in Chemistry for the groundbreaking AlphaFold program which accurately predicts protein structures.
The Nobel prizes signify one important thing- AI has a major role to play for the world in the coming era. This calls for nations, including India, to harness AI’s potential for future growth. As India charts its course toward becoming a developed nation by 2047, the integration of AI into its national growth strategy is essential. The path forward towards this goal, however, remains a challenging feat. With the largest demographic dividend in the world, India cannot risk letting its demographic advantage slip into an ‘economic liability’.
Embracing AI is crucial to turning this potential into a driver of sustained development. The Economic Survey 2024 highlights that AI will provide huge growth opportunities for India, it also warned of the challenges ahead, particularly in the job market. We need to understand the significant impact of the ‘development and deployment of AI’ on India’s progress and why the country needs a clear roadmap for AI-driven growth to fulfill the dream of making it a developed nation by 2047.
Embracing Technological Shifts
Technology has an evolving nature. We have witnessed throughout history that a society that does not evolve with technology suffers on various fronts like economic, social, and others. But now, the question is, are we ready to embrace this transformative potential or become victims of our own inertia? The answer lies in the collective willingness to engage with these changes proactively. Consider a recent example, when the introduction of computers which were suspected to create mass job losses in the early 1990s is now a part of every organization. The mobile phones, which were claimed to be a nuisance by parents for their children, became a prominent means of education post-COVID-19 pandemic.
The introduction of ChatGPT in late 2022 has opened another avenue of discussion for the future of the service sector. Many people felt threatened by the capabilities of an AI tool to create well-drafted content in a single command. The possibilities became endless. The entire industry of writers, data entry professionals, and services under the purview of trivial tasks is on the cusp of being replaced by an AI tool freely available on the internet.
This shifting pattern of the jobs by ‘the mechanization of labour’ to the ‘mechanization of knowledge’ is becoming relevant today. The impact of automation has played a huge role in the past and is bound to play a crucial role, yet again in the future.
Every technology has both positives and negatives. On the one hand, there are believers of the technology who consider it to transform the world while on the other end of the pool are cavilers who consider the change as a threat. This is a trend that follows whenever a new technology comes up. The need thus, is to magnify the benefits of the new technology while regulating and monitoring the negatives of technology. This will help ensure that the Industrial Revolution 4.0 proves to be pivotal for shaping the new economic trajectory for the nearly 600 million promising workforce of the country.
AI and Employment
Like every new technology, AI is currently being dubbed as “a double-edged sword”. While the advantages are huge for the economy and the country’s progress there is a looming threat of the displacement of jobs and job loss. If we look at the numbers, around 69 million new jobs are expected to be created due to the shift in the economy. Meanwhile, 83 million jobs are on the verge of being eliminated globally by 2028 due to technological advances. This will result in the loss of about 14 million jobs worldwide.
The implications are particularly profound for developing countries like India, where the workforce must adapt to the changing landscape of AI-driven jobs. While the creation of new jobs offers a glimmer of hope, the elimination of jobs seeks urgent attention from the regulators. Consider a skilled worker who overnight realizes his or her skills are obsolete in the job market. This is not just a statistic but a reality for many. We must understand that there is a significant gap in skills among the Indian workforce. The India Skills report highlights a shocking statistic that only 49% of Indian youth are employable. Besides, the National Employability Report for Engineering highlights that 80 % of Indian engineers lack the necessary skills to be employed. This calls for urgent attention by the government to address these challenges of employment and reskilling initiatives that empower individuals rather than leave them stranded in technological evolution.
Presently, the Indian workforce is going all in on the AI revolution with statistics suggesting that around92% of knowledge workers in India use AI in their workplaces. The question here arises that while the organized sector in the country has been adopting AI, it corresponds to merely 20% of the total workforce in India. However, the real challenge lies in how we are going to address the needs of the unorganized sector that constitutes the remaining 80% of the economy.
The solution remains in front of us. The dissemination of AI in a manner that serves the needs of all, by all, and for all the people in the country. This will require AI to be more inclusive, more accessible, and enabling for everyone. Thus, how AI trickles down in India is an important phenomenon to understand.
Bridging the AI Divide
While AI promises many opportunities for India’s growth, its fruits may not be equally distributed among people. The trickle-down effect of AI, particularly in terms of access to digital tools and sustainable infrastructure, reveals significant gaps that could hinder the adoption of AI in the country. If we fail to bridge the digital divide, we risk creating a two-tiered society where only a privileged few benefit from technological advancements. While AI brings new opportunities, it risks deepening the divide for those without access to digital tools and education.
As per NFHS-5, only 51.8% of women and 65.5% of men aged between 15-49 have ever used the internet. The situation is more severe in the rural areas where only 24.6% of women and 43.4% of men have internet access. This digital divide hampers growth and threatens job creation, due to a lack of education and technical knowledge.
Another area of concern with AI development is the concern of energy and water consumption by AI centers. Globally, data centers consume around 200 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity annually, equivalent to nearly 1% of global electricity demand. Additionally, data centers require more than 4.3 trillion cubic meters (approximately 1.1 quadrillion gallons) of water to be consumed globally every year. Interestingly, this is comparable to every person on the planet drinking over 4 glasses of water, every single minute!! Managing the energy demands of AI systems while addressing environmental damage can cause a hindrance in the wide-scale application of AI.
Opportunities in Uncertainties
India has a long history of resilience and forward-thinking which has been proven time and again in the face of adversity. The COVID-19 pandemic is a recent example where despite being a 3rd World country with limited resources than many of its Western counterparts, India has outshined with its true spirit and resilience. This legacy of finding opportunity in crisis is what makes India important in the AI revolution apart from being a huge market for technology.
India is finding opportunities in the AI sector through growth in the startup ecosystem. India is home to more than 100 GenAI startups and these startups have raised more than USD 600 Mn since 2019. AI startup Krutrim, which created Indic LLMs (Large Language Modules) became India’s first AI unicorn. The trend is clear that the AI ecosystem is on an upward trend and will continue to grow.
The Indian government has been proactive in harnessing AI as it termed it a “kinetic enabler for India’s digital economy”. Policy frameworks like the National Artificial Intelligence Strategy 2018 have been launched to promote responsible AI adoption in the country. Through various initiatives like the IndiaAI mission, the government will act as a facilitator by establishing Centres of Excellence, AI portals, and startup events like RAISE.
The question we have to look at is whether these initiatives truly resonate with the needs of the citizens of the country. Are these policies merely top-down mandates, or do they empower local communities to harness AI’s potential?
India assumed the Council Chair of GPAI (Global Partnership on AI) in 2023, leading the way for other countries. Along with this, academia has been proactive in the race of AI. Recently CDAC, Pune has established an AI supercomputer (AIRAWAT) to further AI research. Besides this, the Indian Railways has implemented an AI model to enhance seat availability on high-demand routes, resulting in over a 30% increase in the rate of confirmed tickets.
These initiatives by the government, coupled with the adaptive and forward-thinking approach of India’s workforce, have positioned India firmly to take advantage of the AI revolution. The government’s initiatives to create a bridge between communities and technology will be essential for genuine progress and to determine how the future of AI in the country will look.
The Future of AI in India
The effectiveness of how AI will be used in India and its impact on its growth will be dependent on ensuring that it is deployed to benefit people rather than cause them harm. Tackling challenges such as digital divide, accessibility, job disruptions and rising problems like AI-generated misinformation will be a tumultuous challenge on the road to AI-driven growth. With the rise in misinformation caused by AI where every 3 in 4 Indians are already exposed to deepfakes focused steps must be taken to ensure that AI is used for human good. This requires a commitment to responsible, inclusive, and trustworthy AI while encouraging growth and innovation.
India has to ensure that AI contributes to collective welfare and not just for profit but for addressing societal challenges like health, education, and inequality. A way towards human-centric AI that prioritizes ethical considerations and transparency will be one of the most important steps toward creating a future in which AI serves the greater good.
India has immense potential to become a leader in AI for the Global South, deploying AI-driven solutions to other developing countries. By creating affordable AI systems tailored to increase inclusivity in the African-Asian markets, India can guide other nations in addressing digital inequality, energy security, and application challenges.
India led a grand alliance of Government, the private sector, and academia, all aboard the AI revolution to harness its potential for growth and development. The time is now when we must look at what kind of future we want with AI.
Do we use it solely for economic gains or do we harness it to address pressing societal challenges? The choices we make today will shape not just our economy but also our collective identity as a nation. It is essential to ensure that AI will become a beacon of growth rather than a source of havoc and disruptions. With the dedication and foresight that we have shown throughout our history, India can avoid the failures of industrial revolutions of the past and ensure that its future is prosperous and bright, making the AI era an “India success story”.
Written By : Pranjal Dwivedi–Tech Policy and AI Ethics Specialist. Working as Project Manager with Inclusive AI.